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The most severe potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by scientists, ranging from a scorching 4C jump in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in sea levels. Another scenario envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Guarantees

These impacts, a number of which are connected to climate tipping points, are viewed as unlikely but plausible. The team explained that these projections filled a gap in forecasting that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for extreme outcomes.

"The severe weather events we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are plausible," said the lead researcher who oversaw the analysis. "Britain has been formulating policy in the absence of the methods to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now given decision-makers what they need to prepare for future conditions they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Severe Conditions Projections

Another collection of severe models maps the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the year 2100. These indicate that thermometer readings could skyrocket in certain periods by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be triple standard measurements.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios happening remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what measures will be taken to combat climate change and how the climate system will behave. This approach was likened to security threat evaluations or stress tests for the banking sector.

Key Outcome Elements

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if powerful amplifying effects including the Amazon basin perishing unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A key circulation system, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is slowing down and showing signs of collapse due to ocean warming. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be completely altered," noted the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in the polar regions melt abruptly, flooding seaside communities. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by planners.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity reflect solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

The severe models could be utilized in planning the building of critical national infrastructure, for example housing developments, nuclear power stations and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these future hazards could also accelerate the push to reduce carbon pollution.

The study developed the extreme models using a combination of past data and records, climate models and climate physics. The possibilities omit broader worldwide issues such as the agricultural collapse and geopolitical instability.

The research was initiated as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have stated that not enough attention was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the threats for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the center of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is ready for the consequences."